ASIS team members contributed to a paper that was developed by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) 'Evolution, Drivers and Implications of Antarctic Sea Ice Change’ submitted to the 48th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM) and the 28th Committee for Environmental Protection (CEP) meetings (11–21 May 2026, Hiroshima, Japan). Some of the information was also shared at the CEP/ Scientific Committee for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (SC-CAMLR) workshop held before the CEP and ATCM meetings.
Key messages
1. Observed Antarctic Sea-Ice Change: Following a small increase between 1979-2015, annual Antarctic sea ice declined precipitously from 2016 onwards. The sea-ice loss in recent years is exceptional relative to the expected range of natural variability, indicating that Antarctic sea ice has undergone an abrupt critical regime change.
2. Drivers of Antarctic Sea-Ice Change: Antarctic sea ice is sensitive to an array of complex and interlinked drivers, however observations indicate that heat build-up in the Southern Ocean is the major driver of recent circumpolar-wide sea-ice declines.
3. Ecological Impacts of Antarctic Sea-Ice Change: Antarctic sea ice plays a key role in supporting Southern Ocean ecosystems. Observed sea-ice loss to date has had concerning ecological consequences.
4. International Cooperation Urgently Needed: Sea-ice changes will have global impacts. To respond effectively there is a need to strengthen international scientific collaboration, including to expand long-term monitoring, and accelerate advances in sea-ice modelling.
The paper was well received and generated discussion at the CEP and at the ATCM. The discussion at both meetings was extensive and settled especially on the rapid change, likely ongoing nature thereof, and implications for multiple species.
Recommendations
Given the ongoing and predicted future changes inAntarctic sea-ice decline, and the potential impacts on Antarctic ecosystems and the Earth System, SCAR recommended that Members:
1. Continue to identify priority information needs related to Antarctic sea-ice change so that future updates from SCAR can focus on the most relevant research and provide advice on understanding and mitigating ongoing sea-ice change.
2. Support ongoing and increased observations related to sea ice to improve predictions and inform outcomes for system functioning, including for Antarctic marine life such as penguins and seals.
The paper was submitted and presented at the ATCM/CEP meetings by the Chair of the SCAR SCATS (Standing Committee on the AntarcticTreaty System), Prof. Cassandra Brooks.
You can download the paper from the ATCM-CEP meeting documents hub or from the ASIS website.
