Anticipating Antarctic Sea-ice change
The Antarctic Sea-Ice Switch research programme is exploring the changing dynamics of Antarctic sea ice. Prompted by recent record sea-ice lows, our research uses advanced technology and modelling, investigates driving forces, assesses impacts and improves forecasting, to prepare for the effects of a warming Antarctica.

Antarctic sea ice has switched

While global warming has caused Arctic sea-ice extent to plummet by 12% per decade, Antarctic sea ice continued to expand, dominated by the Ross Sea region. But since 2016, Ross Sea region sea ice has declined unexpectedly and sharply—Antarctic sea-ice loss over 3 years was equivalent to 30 years of sea-ice loss in the Arctic.  
These recent, sharp declines might indicate a transition to new, more extreme, inter-annual fluctuations or the beginning of a long-term declining trend, with potential to accelerate a multitude of global climate change impacts.
Is humanity at the brink of a critical tipping point of Antarctic environmental change?
Photo Credit: Nancy Bertler

Why is sea ice so important?

Physically, sea ice regulates gas exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean, stabilises ice shelves, drives global ocean circulation, and regulates ocean carbon storage and atmospheric CO2.
Ecologically, sea ice serves as habitat for flora and fauna, and regulates light availability, nutrient fluxes, CO2uptake by phytoplankton, and provides a platform for breeding, feeding and refuge.
Changes in sea ice matter.
Photo Credit: Nancy Bertler

Preparing for new sea-ice threats

Our five-year research programme (2024-2029) is investigating the critical role of Antarctic sea ice dynamics on our climate, oceans, ice sheet stability and marine ecosystems. Learn more about Our Research
To ensure conservation measures and adaptation strategies support mitigation of climate change impacts, our research contributes to a long-term coordinated effort between Antarctic Treaty partners, researchers, Māori and New Zealand government agencies, industry and National Antarctic Programmes. Follow the Links
Photo Credit: Nancy Bertler

Latest Updates

Ecosystems
Science-Policy
Climate-Ocean Interactions
Cryosphere
Lana Young
May 15, 2025

Why is sea ice so important?

Changes in sea ice matter for the physical environment and biological ecosystems.

Cryosphere
Climate-Ocean Interactions
Science-Policy
Ecosystems
Lana Young
May 1, 2025

The Sea-Ice Switch in Antarctica

After a long period where Antarctic sea ice continued to expand, since 2016, Ross Sea region sea ice has declined unexpectedly and sharply.

Partnerships
Sea ice
Research
Lana Young
September 17, 2024

Funding Announced for Sea-Ice Programme

Investigation of recent abrupt changes in Antarctic sea ice is among research funded by the 2024 Endeavour Fund.

Victoria University of Wellington
Kelburn Parade
Wellington
New Zealand
e: seaice@vuw.ac.nz

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